The long case for crypto.
Rise Research publishes open-access institutional papers on crypto's long-term investability, Bitcoin monetary policy, the Ethereum cash-flow thesis, altcoin durability, and the math behind every score in Rise Lab. We publish what we learn — both because the field needs better thinking and because conviction shared publicly is conviction tested honestly.
The Long Bitcoin Thesis — and the math behind it.
Our flagship whitepaper on the long-term investability of crypto. We argue, with data, that Bitcoin is the first credibly-monetized digital asset — and that this places it in a different analytical category from the rest of the market. We construct the AMADEUS Investability Framework, calibrate it against 247 crypto assets and 11 years of return data, and present a quantified case for institutional allocation. The companion papers (02–05) develop the framework into the Bitcoin monetary case, the Ethereum cash-flow thesis, the altcoin survivability data, and the Q2 2026 market brief.
Four companion papers. Same framework.
Each paper is short, peer-reviewed by Rise Capital's investment committee, and built around a single quantitative question. All five together form the analytical basis for the AMADEUS ONE strategy.
Bitcoin Monetary Policy — the 21M anchor.
The first institutional paper to formalize Bitcoin's monetary policy advantage relative to fiat currencies. We construct a "monetary credibility index" across 18 monetary regimes (fiat + crypto) and show that Bitcoin's hard cap and predictable issuance schedule place it in a category occupied by no fiat currency and no other crypto asset.
"We define and calibrate a Monetary Credibility Index (MCI) across 18 regimes. Bitcoin scores 94 of 100 — placing it 32 points above the highest-scoring fiat (the Swiss Franc, 62) and 28 points above the next highest crypto (Litecoin, 66)…"
Read PDFEthereum — the cash-flow thesis.
If Bitcoin's case rests on monetary policy, Ethereum's rests on cash flows. Post-EIP-1559 and post-Merge, ETH is the first crypto asset with credible discount-cash-flow valuation. We construct a DCF for ETH using fee burn, staking yield, and L2 settlement value — and propose the framework for Layer-1 valuation that AMADEUS uses internally.
"We model Ethereum cash flows from three sources (fee burn, staking yield net of issuance, settlement value capture). Under three growth regimes (bear, base, bull), our DCF produces fair-value ranges of $1,840–8,400 per ETH at terminal year 2030, with terminal multiples grounded in payment-network comparables…"
Read PDFAltcoin Survivability — what 247 assets tell us about the 5%.
The first published study of crypto survival rates with proper survivorship adjustment. Of 247 crypto assets that traded with meaningful liquidity in 2015, only 12 remain in the top 100 by market cap in 2025. We identify the four characteristics that distinguished survivors from failures — and propose the AMADEUS allocation framework derived from those findings.
"Of 247 crypto assets with >$10M market cap in January 2015, 5% (n=12) remained in the top 100 by 2025. Four characteristics distinguish survivors with 81% accuracy: (1) credible monetary policy (MCI >55), (2) decentralized validator set (NC >7), (3) developer continuity, (4) regulatory clarity…"
Read PDFThe 2026 Digital-Asset Brief — ETFs, regulation, AI × crypto.
The first Rise Research quarterly brief of 2026. Covers the post-ETF institutional inflow pattern, the bifurcation of regulatory regimes between US and EU, and the AI × crypto intersection that we believe will define the back half of the decade — specifically the demand for verifiable compute, decentralized AI inference markets, and machine-to-machine payment rails.
"Q1 2026 spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $14.2B mark the largest quarterly institutional accumulation in any commodity ETF in history (prior record: SPDR Gold, Q1 2009, $12.8B). The structural buyer base has materially shifted from individual to RIA…"
Read PDFBuilt on eleven years of digital-asset return data.
Every paper in Rise Research uses the same underlying dataset and methodology. We track 247 crypto assets across 11 years of return data (2014–2025), through 11 macro regimes, with the Rise Capital position log going back to fund inception. Survivorship adjustments are explicit. The math is published. The conclusions are open to dispute — and we publish the disagreements alongside.
The full dataset, the scoring code, and the calibration tables are downloadable. If your analysis complicates the conclusions in Vol. 03 Paper 04, we want to see it.
Use it. All Rise Research is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Reprint it, adapt it, build on it. The only ask: attribute Rise Research and link the source. If you run a competing fund and our work helps you do it better, we consider that a win for the field.